Longitudinally monitored immune biomarkers predict the timing of COVID-19 outcomes.

The clinical outcome of SARS-CoV-2 infection varies widely between individuals. Machine learning models can support decision making in healthcare by assessing fatality risk in patients that do not yet show severe signs of COVID-19. Most predictive models rely on static demographic features and clinical values obtained upon hospitalization. However, time-dependent biomarkers associated with COVID-19 severity, such as antibody titers, can substantially contribute to the development of more accurate outcome models. Here we show that models trained on immune biomarkers, longitudinally monitored throughout hospitalization, predicted mortality and were more accurate than models based on demographic and clinical data upon hospital admission. Our best-performing predictive models were based on the temporal analysis of anti-SARS-CoV-2 Spike IgG titers, white blood cell (WBC), neutrophil and lymphocyte counts. These biomarkers, together with C-reactive protein and blood urea nitrogen levels, were found to correlate with severity of disease and mortality in a time-dependent manner. Shapley additive explanations of our model revealed the higher predictive value of day post-symptom onset (PSO) as hospitalization progresses and showed how immune biomarkers contribute to predict mortality. In sum, we demonstrate that the kinetics of immune biomarkers can inform clinical models to serve as a powerful monitoring tool for predicting fatality risk in hospitalized COVID-19 patients, underscoring the importance of contextualizing clinical parameters according to their time post-symptom onset.

Efficacy and Safety of COVID-19 Convalescent Plasma in Hospitalized Patients: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: There is clinical equipoise for COVID-19 convalescent plasma (CCP) use in patients hospitalized with COVID-19. Objective: To determine the safety and efficacy of CCP compared with placebo in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 receiving noninvasive supplemental oxygen. Design, Setting, and Participants: CONTAIN COVID-19, a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of CCP in hospitalized adults with COVID-19, was conducted at 21 US hospitals from April 17, 2020, to March 15, 2021. The trial enrolled 941 participants who were hospitalized for 3 or less days or presented 7 or less days after symptom onset and required noninvasive oxygen supplementation. Interventions: A unit of approximately 250 mL of CCP or equivalent volume of placebo (normal saline). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was participant scores on the 11-point World Health Organization (WHO) Ordinal Scale for Clinical Improvement on day 14 after randomization; the secondary outcome was WHO scores determined on day 28. Subgroups were analyzed with respect to age, baseline WHO score, concomitant medications, symptom duration, CCP SARS-CoV-2 titer, baseline SARS-CoV-2 serostatus, and enrollment quarter. Outcomes were analyzed using a bayesian proportional cumulative odds model. Efficacy of CCP was defined as a cumulative adjusted odds ratio (cOR) less than 1 and a clinically meaningful effect as cOR less than 0.8. Results: Of 941 participants randomized (473 to placebo and 468 to CCP), 556 were men (59.1%); median age was 63 years (IQR, 52-73); 373 (39.6%) were Hispanic and 132 (14.0%) were non-Hispanic Black. The cOR for the primary outcome adjusted for site, baseline risk, WHO score, age, sex, and symptom duration was 0.94 (95% credible interval [CrI], 0.75-1.18) with posterior probability (P[cOR<1] = 72%); the cOR for the secondary adjusted outcome was 0.92 (95% CrI, 0.74-1.16; P[cOR<1] = 76%). Exploratory subgroup analyses suggested heterogeneity of treatment effect: at day 28, cORs were 0.72 (95% CrI, 0.46-1.13; P[cOR<1] = 93%) for participants enrolled in April-June 2020 and 0.65 (95% CrI, 0.41 to 1.02; P[cOR<1] = 97%) for those not receiving remdesivir and not receiving corticosteroids at randomization. Median CCP SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing titer used in April to June 2020 was 1:175 (IQR, 76-379). Any adverse events (excluding transfusion reactions) were reported for 39 (8.2%) placebo recipients and 44 (9.4%) CCP recipients (P = .57). Transfusion reactions occurred in 2 (0.4) placebo recipients and 8 (1.7) CCP recipients (P = .06). Conclusions and Relevance: In this trial, CCP did not meet the prespecified primary and secondary outcomes for CCP efficacy. However, high-titer CCP may have benefited participants early in the pandemic when remdesivir and corticosteroids were not in use. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04364737.

A Combination of Receptor-Binding Domain and N-Terminal Domain Neutralizing Antibodies Limits the Generation of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Neutralization-Escape Mutants.

Most known SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies (nAbs), including those approved by the FDA for emergency use, inhibit viral infection by targeting the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the spike (S) protein. Variants of concern (VOC) carrying mutations in the RBD or other regions of S reduce the effectiveness of many nAbs and vaccines by evading neutralization. Therefore, therapies that are less susceptible to resistance are urgently needed. Here, we characterized the memory B-cell repertoire of COVID-19 convalescent donors and analyzed their RBD and non-RBD nAbs. We found that many of the non-RBD-targeting nAbs were specific to the N-terminal domain (NTD). Using neutralization assays with authentic SARS-CoV-2 and a recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus carrying SARS-CoV-2 S protein (rVSV-SARS2), we defined a panel of potent RBD and NTD nAbs. Next, we used a combination of neutralization-escape rVSV-SARS2 mutants and a yeast display library of RBD mutants to map their epitopes. The most potent RBD nAb competed with hACE2 binding and targeted an epitope that includes residue F490. The most potent NTD nAb epitope included Y145, K150, and W152. As seen with some of the natural VOC, the neutralization potencies of COVID-19 convalescent-phase sera were reduced by 4- to 16-fold against rVSV-SARS2 bearing Y145D, K150E, or W152R spike mutations. Moreover, we found that combining RBD and NTD nAbs did not enhance their neutralization potential. Notably, the same combination of RBD and NTD nAbs limited the development of neutralization-escape mutants in vitro, suggesting such a strategy may have higher efficacy and utility for mitigating the emergence of VOC. IMPORTANCE The U.S. FDA has issued emergency use authorizations (EUAs) for multiple investigational monoclonal antibody (MAb) therapies for the treatment of mild to moderate COVID-19. These MAb therapeutics are solely targeting the receptor-binding domain of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. However, the N-terminal domain of the spike protein also carries crucial neutralizing epitopes. Here, we show that key mutations in the N-terminal domain can reduce the neutralizing capacity of convalescent-phase COVID-19 sera. We report that a combination of two neutralizing antibodies targeting the receptor-binding and N-terminal domains may be beneficial to combat the emergence of virus variants.

Computational strategies to combat COVID-19: useful tools to accelerate SARS-CoV-2 and coronavirus research.

SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) is a novel virus of the family Coronaviridae. The virus causes the infectious disease COVID-19. The biology of coronaviruses has been studied for many years. However, bioinformatics tools designed explicitly for SARS-CoV-2 have only recently been developed as a rapid reaction to the need for fast detection, understanding and treatment of COVID-19. To control the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, it is of utmost importance to get insight into the evolution and pathogenesis of the virus. In this review, we cover bioinformatics workflows and tools for the routine detection of SARS-CoV-2 infection, the reliable analysis of sequencing data, the tracking of the COVID-19 pandemic and evaluation of containment measures, the study of coronavirus evolution, the discovery of potential drug targets and development of therapeutic strategies. For each tool, we briefly describe its use case and how it advances research specifically for SARS-CoV-2. All tools are free to use and available online, either through web applications or public code repositories. Contact:evbc@unj-jena.de.

Single-Dilution COVID-19 Antibody Test with Qualitative and Quantitative Readouts.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) global pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) continues to place an immense burden on societies and health care systems. A key component of COVID-19 control efforts is serological testing to determine the community prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 exposure and quantify individual immune responses to prior SARS-CoV-2 infection or vaccination. Here, we describe a laboratory-developed antibody test that uses readily available research-grade reagents to detect SARS-CoV-2 exposure in patient blood samples with high sensitivity and specificity. We further show that this sensitive test affords the estimation of viral spike-specific IgG titers from a single sample measurement, thereby providing a simple and scalable method to measure the strength of an individual's immune response. The accuracy, adaptability, and cost-effectiveness of this test make it an excellent option for clinical deployment in the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.IMPORTANCE Serological surveillance has become an important public health tool during the COVID-19 pandemic. Detection of protective antibodies and seroconversion after SARS-CoV-2 infection or vaccination can help guide patient care plans and public health policies. Serology tests can detect antibodies against past infections; consequently, they can help overcome the shortcomings of molecular tests, which can detect only active infections. This is important, especially when considering that many COVID-19 patients are asymptomatic. In this study, we describe an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA)-based qualitative and quantitative serology test developed to measure IgG and IgA antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein. The test can be deployed using commonly available laboratory reagents and equipment and displays high specificity and sensitivity. Furthermore, we demonstrate that IgG titers in patient samples can be estimated from a single measurement, enabling the assay's use in high-throughput clinical environments.

A Sweep of Earth's Virome Reveals Host-Guided Viral Protein Structural Mimicry and Points to Determinants of Human Disease.

Viruses deploy genetically encoded strategies to coopt host machinery and support viral replicative cycles. Here, we use protein structure similarity to scan for molecular mimicry, manifested by structural similarity between viral and endogenous host proteins, across thousands of cataloged viruses and hosts spanning broad ecological niches and taxonomic range, including bacteria, plants and fungi, invertebrates, and vertebrates. This survey identified over 6,000,000 instances of structural mimicry; more than 70% of viral mimics cannot be discerned through protein sequence alone. We demonstrate that the manner and degree to which viruses exploit molecular mimicry varies by genome size and nucleic acid type and identify 158 human proteins that are mimicked by coronaviruses, providing clues about cellular processes driving pathogenesis. Our observations point to molecular mimicry as a pervasive strategy employed by viruses and indicate that the protein structure space used by a given virus is dictated by the host proteome. A record of this paper's transparent peer review process is included in the Supplemental Information.

A Replication-Competent Vesicular Stomatitis Virus for Studies of SARS-CoV-2 Spike-Mediated Cell Entry and Its Inhibition.

There is an urgent need for vaccines and therapeutics to prevent and treat COVID-19. Rapid SARS-CoV-2 countermeasure development is contingent on the availability of robust, scalable, and readily deployable surrogate viral assays to screen antiviral humoral responses, define correlates of immune protection, and down-select candidate antivirals. Here, we generate a highly infectious recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV) bearing the SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein S as its sole entry glycoprotein and show that this recombinant virus, rVSV-SARS-CoV-2 S, closely resembles SARS-CoV-2 in its entry-related properties. The neutralizing activities of a large panel of COVID-19 convalescent sera can be assessed in a high-throughput fluorescent reporter assay with rVSV-SARS-CoV-2 S, and neutralization of rVSV-SARS-CoV-2 S and authentic SARS-CoV-2 by spike-specific antibodies in these antisera is highly correlated. Our findings underscore the utility of rVSV-SARS-CoV-2 S for the development of spike-specific therapeutics and for mechanistic studies of viral entry and its inhibition.